GSPM Blog

President Obama Faces Both Challenge and Opportunity for Jobs Plan Speech This Thursday

SEP 6, 2011

WASHINGTON – Thirty-six percent of Republicans identify Rick Perry as their first choice for the GOP Presidential nomination in 2012, according to the latest POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll. Only seventeen percent favor former front-runner Mitt Romney, going into this week’s Republican Presidential Debate, while Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul trail behind with 10 percent each. Fifty-three percent of Republicans are satisfied with the field of Republican candidates running for president.

With polling data from Independents and Democrats included, Romney regained an edge with a favorable rating of 39 percent, an eight point lead over Perry’s 31 percent. Twenty-seven percent of respondents, however, have never heard of Rick Perry. Of the Republican primary candidates, Michele Bachmann holds the highest unfavorable rating, 43 percent, overshadowed only by non-candidate, Sarah Palin’s unfavorable rating of 60 percent.

A startling 72 percent of Americans feel that the country is on the wrong track, a number that is up thirteen points from the last POLITICO-GW Battleground Poll in May. The economy continues to be the primary concern with 25 percent identifying it as the most important issue for Congress to focus on, followed by government spending and the deficit at 20 percent. The issue of jobs is a close third at 18 percent. Fifty seven percent of those surveyed are extremely or very worried that the United States will suffer another economic downturn that will negatively impact their family – an 18 point hike from the May poll numbers.

President Barack Obama enters this week’s upcoming jobs plan speech in a position of challenge and opportunity with greater disapproval numbers than earlier polling. Fifty-nine percent of Americans disapprove of his handling of the economy, while 57 percent disapprove of his handling of jobs. Yet, when asked who will better handle turning the economy around, Congressional Republicans were only slightly favored over President Obama, 46 percent to 44 percent. On the issue of job creation, the split was even closer with 46 percent favoring Congressional Republicans over 45 percent favoring President Obama.

“This week’s speech on job creation offers an enormous opportunity to recast the debate and with it the Obama presidency,” said Democratic pollster and President of Lake Research Partners Celinda Lake. “While the President is statistically tied with Republicans over the issues of turning the economy around and creating jobs, independents favor Obama on both these issues. The President also has majority support for bold action to get the economy going and Americans back to work, such as a with a WPA-style jobs plan that has the power to serve as the fulcrum of 2012, solidify his base, and win over key swing groups.”

The bump in President Barack Obama’s approval ratings following the death of Osama Bin Laden has dissipated to an almost evenly split 45 percent approval, 50 percent disapproval. These numbers represent a seven-point drop in approval and a five-point climb in disapproval from last spring’s POLITICO-GW Battleground Poll. Forty-three percent of Americans say they will definitely not vote for President Obama in 2012. Yet when asked who will better handle standing up for the middle class, President Obama has a 22 point lead over Congressional Republicans, with 57 percent of those surveyed feeling he could do a better job as opposed to the 35 percent who favored GOP Members of Congress.

“On the crucial question of whether to continue to make deals or whether to take a more aggressive tone, the President can do what the majority of voters want (continue to make deals) or what his most ardent supporters want (take a more aggressive tone), but he cannot do both,” said Republican pollster Brian Nienaber of Tarrance Group.

In most areas, the gaps between perceived issue handling by Republicans versus Democrats in Congress are holding steady. On the key issues of turning the economy around and job creation, numbers are very closely split. Forty-four percent feel Congressional Republicans could do a better job of turning the economy around, compared to 39 percent who favor Congressional Democrats. Forty-four percent also feel that Congressional Republicans could better handle job creation as opposed to 41 percent who feel that Congressional Democrats could do a better job. However, when asked if the election for Congress was held today – Democrats lead Republicans by one point with 41 percent of Americans selecting a Democratic candidate in their district as opposed to 40 percent selecting a Republican candidate.

“Overall, the picture that emerges of the 2012 election should be gravely worrying for the Democrats, but not yet hopeless,” said Christopher Arterton, a GW professor of political management. “Strategically, the poll findings suggest that the Democrats will have to go on the attack against any Republican candidate, implying a campaign filled with negative advertisements. Given these sentiments, the Obama campaign will have to make the alternative seem even more undesirable.”

The POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll is a nationally recognized, series of surveys conducted by Republican pollster Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. The GW Global Media Institute, affiliated with the Graduate School of Political Management (GSPM) and the School of Media and Public Affairs (SMPA), serves as the university’s home for the partnership. GW’s Gelman Library houses the data archive of the survey results dating back more than two decades. The poll, which is distinguished from other surveys by its presentation of separate analyses from these top pollsters representing both sides of the aisle, surveyed 1,000 registered likely voters nationwide Aug. 28 through Sept. 1, 2011, and yields a margin of error of + 3.1 percent.

As the country shifts its focus to the 2012 elections, the POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll results will be a valuable tool in anticipating the outcome and gauging voter attitudes and concerns. Analyses and full results can be found at www.gwu.edu and POLITICO.com.

Christopher Arterton, professor of political management at GW; Celinda Lake, president of Lake Research Partners; and Brian Nienaber of The Tarrance Group; are all available for comment. For Professor Arterton, contact Jill Sankey at 202-994-6466. For Ms. Lake, contact Daniel Gotoff at Lake Research Partners, 202-776-9066. For Mr. Nienaber at The Tarrance Group, call 703-684-6688. There will also be an online POLITICO Arena Discussion on Tuesday, Sept. 6. Anyone wishing to participate can log on here.

- GW -